What Luck Has to Do With It: Understanding the Role of Nuclear Luck in Decision-Making

Authors

  • Tyrus Tibor Kalanyos Carleton University, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton

Abstract

Since the end of the Second World War and the start of the Nuclear Age, there have been numerous cases of nuclear near-use or near-incidents. This article makes a case for how luck, particularly nuclear luck, has not only been an essential variable in preventing nuclear wars and uses, but also how experiences with nuclear luck have shaped the decision-making process in America and the Soviet Union. Through case study analyses of the War Scare events in the early 1980s, primarily the Able Archer-83 incident and the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident, the paper identifies attitude and policy shifts in decision-makers’ posture towards nuclear security with an understanding of political psychology scholarship. The findings suggest that experiences of nuclear luck can lead to more careful and risk-averse behaviour, the paper also highlights how the relationship between nuclear luck and the decision-making process can advance theories on behavioural arms control.

Keywords: nuclear luck, decision-making, nuclear weapons, nuclear near-use, 1983, war scare, Cold War

Author Biography

  • Tyrus Tibor Kalanyos, Carleton University, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton

    Tyrus Kalanyos is in his first year at Carleton’s NPSIA program studying for a Master’s of International Affairs with a field specialisation in Security and Defence Policy. Prior to Carleton, Tyrus completed his Honours Bachelor’s of Arts in Political Science and European Affairs at the University of Toronto and graduated as a Global Scholar with High Distinction. While at Carleton, Tyrus hopes to continue to expand his knowledge and research skills gained during his undergrad to delve deeper into nuclear and Arctic security issues.

    Honourable mention in the annual 2025 JMSS Award of Excellence.

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Published

2026-03-16

Issue

Vol. 24 No. 3 (2025): Journal of Military & Strategic Studies

Section

JMSS Awards of Excellence