“No Sense in Military Terms:” Reconsidering the Surprising Use of Force in a Gray Zone Conflict

Reconsidering the Surprising Use of Force in a Gray Zone Conflict

Abstract

This article examines the causes of conflict escalation between Iran and the United States during Operation Earnest Will from 1987-1988. American officials considered direct confrontation unlikely and expressed surprise at Iranian actions after the start of American intervention. The article argues that armed conflict between Iran and the United States was likely because Iran’s worsening strategic position in the later stages of the Iran-Iraq War left it with few remaining options for exerting pressure on Iraq, and the United States could not avoid escalation without risking its influence in the region. The strategic circumstances that led to escalation are important for considering modern gray zone conflicts that are intended to remain below the threshold of open war, and the case study is a reminder that it is possible to underestimate the gray zone environment and end up in an armed confrontation despite predictions to the contrary.