The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the (Un)Changing Character of War

Abstract

Over the past 30 years, studies of war have repeatedly promoted the thesis that fundamental changes are taking place in the character, or even the fundamental nature, of war. If this was the case, we would expect these changes to be observable in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Yet they do not seem to be. This article analyzes the conduct of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and compares it to theories concerning the changing character of war. It concludes that very little, if any, of that theorizing applies. Despite the use of modern technologies, the war in Ukraine is strikingly old-fashioned. Military planners are likely to conclude that they must prepare for the possibility that wars of the future may look very like wars of the past, in other words, that they may be prolonged wars of attrition, and that the outcome may be determined by which side is able to mobilize the largest army and the greatest firepower.