How likely is it that Vladimir Putin will be able to Claim some sort of Victory in Ukraine? An Assessment based on Events from February - early November 2022


  • Alexander Hill University of Calgary


This paper provides both an outline of the war in Ukraine to date and an assessment of the likelihood that Vladimir Putin’s Russian government will be able to claim a degree of success in its special operation in Ukraine if and when there is either a meaningful ceasefire or ultimately peace agreement between the warring powers. Russian success is defined in terms of the aims of the special operation’ as stated by Russian leaders on the eve of and during the course of the operation to date. The paper concludes that in all likelihood Russia will be able to claim a limited degree of success at the end of the special operation, even if that success will have come at a high cost.

Author Biography

Alexander Hill, University of Calgary

Alexander Hill is a professor in military history at the University of Calgary, Canada, and specialises in the military and political affairs of Russia and the Soviet Union. He is author of The Red Army and the Second World War (Cambridge University Press, 2016) and a number of other books and journal articles on Soviet military history.






Special Issue: War in Ukraine