SECOND PRIZE A Force in Adazi: Strategic Deterrence by Denial


  • Major Andrew McGregor Royal Military College of Canada


As a founding North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member, Canada sustained combat forces in Europe throughout the Cold War. Since 2017, Canada has once again deployed combat forces along the Alliance’s eastern flank and opposite a revanchist Russia. Canada leads the enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) Battlegroup based in Adazi, Latvia, with the mandate to deter and/or defeat adversarial incursions. This paper argues that Canada’s eFP mission is a prudent contribution to NATO’s strategic deterrence of the Russian threat. Introducing a novel strategic deterrence framework, this paper covers the extant Russian threat, the theory underpinning NATO’s deterrence, and the implications of deterring the Russian threat. This analysis reveals that: the Russians are still the most significant threat to NATO, and by extension Canada; the eFP mission is an effective deterrence by denial mechanism; and Canada’s eFP leadership is a prudent contribution to collective security.

Author Biography

Major Andrew McGregor, Royal Military College of Canada

Major Andrew W. McGregor is an Infantry Officer with the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF).  He is currently enrolled in the Joint Command and Staff Program (JCSP) at the Canadian Forces College (CFC) in Toronto and is completing a Master of Defence Studies (MDS) through the Royal Military College of Canada (RMC).  He holds a MA in Disaster and Emergency Management from Royal Roads University and a BA (Honours) in Economics from RMC.  His interest in strategic and military studies relates to his overseas service on CAF operations in Afghanistan, Latvia, and Jerusalem. 






Annual National Student Award Competition