Countering Complexity: An Analytical Framework to Guide Counter-Terrorism Policy-Making

Abstract

The development of religiously motivated terrorism has increased the complexity of the terrorist phenomenon. We are currently faced with a wider range of actors with a broader set of motivations, strategies, tactics, organizational structures and goals than ever before. This increased complexity necessitates the development of analytical frameworks that can guide analysis of the terrorist phenomenon to assess terrorist threats and guide counter-terrorism policy-making. Such a framework is developed drawing upon analysis of religiously motivated terrorism in relation to three primary trends in contemporary international terrorism: first, the trend towards the increased lethality of terrorist attacks; second, the increasing threat of the use of weapons of mass destruction; and third, the trend towards decentralizing organization. In each case it is suggested that one can best understand these trends by placing each individual group along a spectrum characterizing either the group’s motivation, use of technology or level of centralization. Moreover this framework can be utilized as an organizational principle to allow a structured analysis of an individual group, the threat it represents and the counter-terrorism strategies to be utilized against it.