The China Question: a Window of Opportunity

Abstract

The twenty-first century presents a new atmosphere of maritime security issues in East Asia focusing on the “China Question”. China, given current prominent modernization motives in the military, political, economic, and foreign policy spheres, will find itself with a window of opportunity to indisputably assert its identity and regional claims. American shortcomings in its littoral/green water strategy and intelligence gathering, the new security threat in the post September 11th atmosphere, and misconceptions in American economic engagement policy with the PRC will accentuate this window of opportunity. By the end of the decade, China could hold the advantage in green water naval superiority within the region. With a huge population base and an emerging middle class, China is becoming a nation with enormous economic potential. However, much like western powers such as Britain and the United States, economic success requires regional influence and the protection of national interests. China has an active naval modernization program within its armed forces. Chinese ability to assert such power, however, is not solely dependant upon the modernization of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) navy via continued Russian arms transfers and increased domestic shipbuilding. It is also necessary to consider American littoral/green water strategy and intelligence gathering, the new security environment in the post September 11th world, and American economic engagement policy with the PRC. It is also necessary to consider Chinese activity in South East Asia (SEA) including its relations with Myanmar as well as its resource exploration in the South China Sea (SCS). Given these factors, China could find itself in an ideal position to safely protect its present and future national interests.